Early Signs Of Export Order Recovery: Will Sino-US Talks Spark Textile Apparel’s Year-End Rebound?
Nov 10, 2025
China's textile and apparel exports remained under pressure in October amid ongoing Sino-US tariff negotiations and global supply chain restructuring, but early signs of order resurgence-coupled with positive signals from bilateral trade talks-are fueling optimism for a year-end recovery. Customs data reveals a double-digit monthly decline, while cumulative exports for the first 10 months stayed relatively stable, setting the stage for a potential rebound in the final quarter.
Key Export Data (Jan-Oct 2025)
RMB Denomination
| Metric | Cumulative (Jan-Oct) | YoY Change | October Monthly | YoY Change | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Textile & Apparel | 1.74919 trillion yuan | -0.7% | 158.28 billion yuan | -12.3% | -9.0% |
| Textiles | 844.19 billion yuan | +1.8% | 80.05 billion yuan | -8.8% | -6.1% |
| Apparel | 905.00 billion yuan | -3.0% | 78.23 billion yuan | -15.7% | -11.8% |
USD Denomination
| Metric | Cumulative (Jan-Oct) | YoY Change | October Monthly | YoY Change | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Textile & Apparel | $243.94 billion | -1.6% | $22.26 billion | -12.6% | -8.8% |
| Textiles | $117.74 billion | +0.9% | $11.26 billion | -9.0% | -5.9% |
| Apparel | $126.20 billion | -3.8% | $11.00 billion | -16.0% | -11.6% |
October Pressure: Tariffs & Supply Chain Shifts Weigh
October's sharp decline reflects lingering headwinds from tariff uncertainties and global supply chain adjustments. Apparel exports bore the brunt, with a 16% YoY drop in USD terms-outpacing the broader sector's 12.6% decline-amid weaker demand and ongoing order diversion to alternative production bases. Textiles fared slightly better, with a 9% YoY decrease, supported by relatively stable demand for industrial textiles and intermediate goods.
On a sequential basis, both segments saw month-on-month declines: apparel exports fell 11.6% from September, while textiles dropped 5.9%, indicating short-term market volatility as buyers awaited clarity on Sino-US trade policies.
Year-End Outlook: Sino-US Talks Brighten the Horizon
The tide may be turning, however. Following the groundbreaking Sino-US trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 30-where the U.S. suspended reciprocal tariffs for one year, paused Section 301 investigations, and extended tariff exclusions -industry insiders anticipate a modest recovery in exports to the U.S. in November and December.
"The policy breakthrough has restored confidence among international buyers," noted a textile export executive. "We're already seeing inquiries for Q1 2026 orders pick up, with some clients reconsidering sourcing strategies amid reduced tariff risks."
For the full year, cumulative exports are expected to remain stable despite October's dip. The resilience of textile exports (up 0.9% YoY in USD terms through October) and the potential for year-end order rebound are likely to offset earlier weaknesses, supporting the sector's overall stability.
Looking Ahead: Balancing Short-Term Recovery & Long-Term Growth
While the Sino-US trade detente offers a near-term lifeline, the sector continues to adapt to structural shifts. The "China+1" sourcing strategy remains prevalent among global brands, and domestic exporters are focusing on high-value-added products-such as functional fabrics and sustainable textiles-to strengthen competitiveness beyond tariff advantages .
As the final quarter unfolds, all eyes are on whether the early signs of order recovery will translate into tangible growth. For China's textile and apparel industry, the year-end rebound hinges on sustained trade policy stability and the ability to capitalize on renewed buyer confidence-making the outcomes of ongoing Sino-US consultations more critical than ever.
#TextileExportRecovery #SinoUSTradeTalks #ApparelIndustryTrends #GlobalSupplyChain #ExportData2025
